Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU +180 CSU -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +12 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -7.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -6.0 (-6.0) | 142.0 (+16.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -7.0 (-5.0) | 143.1 (+14.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -6.4 (-5.6) | 143.0 (+15.0) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -6.4 (-5.6) | 145.3 (+12.7) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | CSU 65 – 57 SJSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | CSU 83 – 56 SJSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | CSU 72 – 50 SJSU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | CSU 72 – 62 SJSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CSU 66 – 47 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 11-9 |
| Home | 6-10 | 12-6 |
| Away | 1-12 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#229) | 6.5 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#242) | 1.14 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#232) | 1.59 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#275) | 0.541 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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