Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -2000 SJSU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +19 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -18.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-33.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -16.4 (+2.6) | 144.3 (-31.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -13.1 (+5.9) | 141.4 (-28.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -16.1 (+2.9) | 144.4 (-31.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -16.5 (+2.5) | 144.4 (-31.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CSU 85 – 73 SJSU |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CSU 65 – 57 SJSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | CSU 83 – 56 SJSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | CSU 72 – 50 SJSU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | CSU 72 – 62 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-16 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 12.7 (#33) | -2.9 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#22) | -0.76 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#20) | -0.87 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#10) | 0.461 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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