Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -1600 SJSU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +10 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -15.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -13.8 (-3.8) | 135.2 (-1.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -12.4 (-2.4) | 133.5 (+0.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -13.8 (-3.8) | 137.3 (-3.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -13.7 (-3.7) | 136.0 (-2.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CSU 85 – 73 SJSU |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CSU 65 – 57 SJSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | CSU 83 – 56 SJSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | CSU 72 – 50 SJSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CSU 66 – 47 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-16 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#39) | -3.8 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#29) | -0.78 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#25) | -0.88 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#19) | 0.454 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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