Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU +140 CSU -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +22 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | SJSU -1.0 (-23.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -0.7 (-21.3) | 141.5 (-19.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -2.0 (-24.0) | 142.6 (-20.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -1.7 (-23.7) | 143.5 (-21.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -1.9 (-23.9) | 145.0 (-23.0) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CSU 85 – 73 SJSU |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CSU 65 – 57 SJSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | CSU 83 – 56 SJSU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | CSU 72 – 62 SJSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CSU 66 – 47 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 16-4 |
| Home | 7-9 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#160) | 2.8 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#226) | 0.59 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#217) | 0.84 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#226) | 0.526 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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