Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -1650 SJSU +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +8 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -13.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -12.2 (-4.2) | 137.3 (-15.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -14.2 (-6.2) | 131.0 (-9.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -12.3 (-4.3) | 137.4 (-15.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -12.5 (-4.5) | 137.7 (-15.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CSU 85 – 73 SJSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | CSU 83 – 56 SJSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | CSU 72 – 50 SJSU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | CSU 72 – 62 SJSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CSU 66 – 47 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 3-17 |
| Home | 12-6 | 6-10 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#95) | -5.0 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#100) | -1.01 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#91) | -1.05 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#144) | 0.451 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 57.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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