Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -4000 SJSU +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +27 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -14.1 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -15.4 (+11.6) | 143.8 (-4.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -14.7 (+12.3) | 145.5 (-6.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -14.6 (+12.4) | 145.2 (-6.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -15.2 (+11.8) | 145.4 (-6.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CSU 85 – 73 SJSU |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CSU 65 – 57 SJSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | CSU 72 – 50 SJSU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | CSU 72 – 62 SJSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CSU 66 – 47 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-9 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#59) | -0.8 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#58) | -0.16 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#56) | -0.25 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#60) | 0.466 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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