Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -250 COLG +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +16 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -8.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -8.4 (+7.6) | 142.3 (+11.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -7.9 (+8.1) | 139.8 (+14.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -9.2 (+6.8) | 140.4 (+13.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -8.1 (+7.9) | 141.4 (+12.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | NAVY 84 – 80 COLG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | COLG 79 – 75 NAVY |
| Jan 16, 2025 | COLG 73 – 66 NAVY |
| Feb 3, 2024 | COLG 88 – 64 NAVY |
| Jan 6, 2024 | COLG 80 – 72 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 10-5 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#142) | -3.8 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#132) | -0.83 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#165) | -0.92 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#117) | 0.506 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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