Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | COLG -115 NAVY -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +4 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | COLG -1.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (+21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -0.5 (-4.5) | 137.7 (+26.3) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -1.0 (-5.0) | 137.0 (+27.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -1.2 (-5.2) | 137.1 (+26.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -0.8 (-4.8) | 138.0 (+26.0) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | NAVY 85 – 69 COLG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | COLG 79 – 75 NAVY |
| Jan 16, 2025 | COLG 73 – 66 NAVY |
| Feb 3, 2024 | COLG 88 – 64 NAVY |
| Jan 6, 2024 | COLG 80 – 72 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 17-1 |
| Home | 9-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-10 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#202) | -0.2 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#219) | 0.08 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#205) | -0.28 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#150) | 0.509 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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