Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | COLG -300 NAVY +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +4 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -6.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -4.4 (-0.4) | 142.7 (+11.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -5.8 (-1.8) | 138.4 (+15.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -4.6 (-0.6) | 140.8 (+13.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -4.5 (-0.5) | 142.0 (+12.0) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | NAVY 85 – 69 COLG |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NAVY 84 – 80 COLG |
| Jan 16, 2025 | COLG 73 – 66 NAVY |
| Feb 3, 2024 | COLG 88 – 64 NAVY |
| Jan 6, 2024 | COLG 80 – 72 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-13 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#244) | -7.5 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#272) | -1.68 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#264) | -1.92 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#255) | 0.413 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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