Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | COLG -800 NAVY +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +24 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -12.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -10.8 (+13.2) | 132.4 (+19.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -11.3 (+12.7) | 132.5 (+19.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -12.6 (+11.4) | 131.3 (+20.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -11.1 (+12.9) | 131.4 (+20.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | NAVY 85 – 69 COLG |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NAVY 84 – 80 COLG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | COLG 79 – 75 NAVY |
| Jan 16, 2025 | COLG 73 – 66 NAVY |
| Jan 6, 2024 | COLG 80 – 72 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 10-5 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#146) | -7.5 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#143) | -2.17 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#154) | -2.65 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#131) | 0.386 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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