Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY +275 COLG -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +8 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | COLG -1.4 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.7 (+29.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -2.0 (-6.0) | 131.5 (+20.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -2.2 (-5.8) | 131.6 (+20.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -2.3 (-5.7) | 127.5 (+24.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -2.2 (-5.8) | 129.4 (+22.6) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | NAVY 85 – 69 COLG |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NAVY 84 – 80 COLG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | COLG 79 – 75 NAVY |
| Jan 16, 2025 | COLG 73 – 66 NAVY |
| Feb 3, 2024 | COLG 88 – 64 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#247) | 1.5 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#314) | 0.51 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#318) | 0.38 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.386 (#340) | 0.521 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.2% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.4% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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