Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | ND +245 NCSU -305 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +6 | 186 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -7.1 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (+29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -6.4 (+12.4) | 153.1 (+32.9) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -5.1 (+11.1) | 151.3 (+34.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -5.1 (+11.1) | 152.4 (+33.6) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -5.2 (+11.2) | 152.6 (+33.4) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2025 | NCSU 66 – 65 ND |
| Jan 4, 2024 | NCSU 54 – 52 ND |
| Jan 25, 2023 | NCSU 85 – 82 ND |
| Feb 5, 2022 | ND 69 – 57 NCSU |
| Jan 27, 2022 | ND 73 – 65 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#91) | 16.5 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#97) | 2.38 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#94) | 3.12 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#122) | 0.595 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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