Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +12 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | ND -1.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -0.7 (-11.3) | 145.0 (-19.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -0.2 (-12.2) | 141.3 (-15.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -0.9 (-11.1) | 144.3 (-18.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -1.1 (-10.9) | 144.7 (-18.7) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ND 96 – 90 NCSU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | NCSU 66 – 65 ND |
| Jan 4, 2024 | NCSU 54 – 52 ND |
| Jan 25, 2023 | NCSU 85 – 82 ND |
| Jan 27, 2022 | ND 73 – 65 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 15-5 |
| Home | 7-10 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#122) | 7.3 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#175) | 1.75 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#149) | 2.03 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#187) | 0.580 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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