Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -450 ND +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -15.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -13.6 (-10.6) | 149.1 (+17.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -10.7 (-7.7) | 146.8 (+20.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -13.0 (-10.0) | 148.7 (+18.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -12.7 (-9.7) | 149.2 (+17.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ND 96 – 90 NCSU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | NCSU 66 – 65 ND |
| Jan 4, 2024 | NCSU 54 – 52 ND |
| Feb 5, 2022 | ND 69 – 57 NCSU |
| Jan 27, 2022 | ND 73 – 65 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 3-17 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-8 |
| Away | 4-6 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#36) | -0.8 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#30) | -0.14 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#35) | -0.09 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#53) | 0.488 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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