Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -145 ND +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -3.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -2.5 (-1.5) | 139.5 (-8.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -3.6 (-2.6) | 136.9 (-5.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -2.7 (-1.7) | 139.5 (-8.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -2.6 (-1.6) | 140.7 (-9.7) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ND 96 – 90 NCSU |
| Jan 4, 2024 | NCSU 54 – 52 ND |
| Jan 25, 2023 | NCSU 85 – 82 ND |
| Feb 5, 2022 | ND 69 – 57 NCSU |
| Jan 27, 2022 | ND 73 – 65 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-5 |
| Away | 0-11 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#96) | 5.7 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#141) | 0.07 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#114) | 0.62 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#177) | 0.500 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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