Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | ND +178 NCSU -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +2 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -3.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (-31.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -3.6 (+1.6) | 135.7 (-29.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -4.5 (+2.5) | 135.3 (-29.3) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -3.9 (+1.9) | 137.9 (-31.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -4.6 (+2.6) | 137.2 (-31.2) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ND 96 – 90 NCSU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | NCSU 66 – 65 ND |
| Jan 25, 2023 | NCSU 85 – 82 ND |
| Feb 5, 2022 | ND 69 – 57 NCSU |
| Jan 27, 2022 | ND 73 – 65 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 26-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-8 | 12-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 10-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#181) | 7.3 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#202) | 2.00 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#211) | 2.73 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#153) | 0.562 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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