Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +8 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | ND -6.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -6.1 (+1.9) | 145.3 (-7.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -6.5 (+1.5) | 142.5 (-4.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -6.6 (+1.4) | 146.5 (-8.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -6.5 (+1.5) | 145.1 (-7.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ND 96 – 90 NCSU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | NCSU 66 – 65 ND |
| Jan 4, 2024 | NCSU 54 – 52 ND |
| Jan 25, 2023 | NCSU 85 – 82 ND |
| Feb 5, 2022 | ND 69 – 57 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 4-16 |
| Home | 14-1 | 7-10 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#77) | 3.8 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#73) | 0.28 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#79) | 0.63 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#67) | 0.501 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.