Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -550 UVA +410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +26 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -12.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -12.1 (+13.9) | 146.3 (-18.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -12.8 (+13.2) | 141.2 (-13.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -12.8 (+13.2) | 143.2 (-15.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -14.5 (+11.5) | 142.9 (-14.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | DUKE 74 – 70 UVA |
| Feb 18, 2025 | DUKE 80 – 62 UVA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | DUKE 73 – 48 UVA |
| Mar 12, 2023 | DUKE 59 – 49 UVA |
| Feb 11, 2023 | UVA 69 – 62 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 30-6 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-0 | 16-1 |
| Away | 10-1 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 28.4 (#2) | 18.9 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.89 (#2) | 3.59 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.55 (#1) | 4.41 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.677 (#2) | 0.626 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 39.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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