Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -250 DUKE +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +7 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -5.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -5.6 (+1.4) | 127.8 (+3.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -4.5 (+2.5) | 121.4 (+9.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -6.1 (+0.9) | 128.8 (+2.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -5.1 (+1.9) | 130.3 (+0.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | DUKE 74 – 70 UVA |
| Feb 28, 2026 | DUKE 77 – 51 UVA |
| Feb 18, 2025 | DUKE 80 – 62 UVA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | DUKE 73 – 48 UVA |
| Mar 12, 2023 | DUKE 59 – 49 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 16-0 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#24) | 11.6 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#10) | 2.29 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.65 (#7) | 2.68 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#8) | 0.612 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.79 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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