Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -305 UVA +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -10.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -8.1 (-4.1) | 138.1 (+5.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -8.3 (-4.3) | 139.3 (+4.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -9.0 (-5.0) | 138.7 (+5.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -8.8 (-4.8) | 140.0 (+4.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | DUKE 77 – 51 UVA |
| Feb 18, 2025 | DUKE 80 – 62 UVA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | DUKE 73 – 48 UVA |
| Mar 12, 2023 | DUKE 59 – 49 UVA |
| Feb 11, 2023 | UVA 69 – 62 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 30-6 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-0 | 16-1 |
| Away | 10-1 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 28.7 (#2) | 18.7 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.09 (#3) | 3.72 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.74 (#1) | 4.54 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.677 (#2) | 0.624 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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