Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Under |
| Money | UVA +126 DUKE -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +10 | 108 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -1.2 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -0.9 (-9.1) | 123.6 (-15.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -1.3 (-8.7) | 122.7 (-14.7) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -1.2 (-8.8) | 127.8 (-19.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -1.3 (-8.7) | 125.8 (-17.8) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | DUKE 74 – 70 UVA |
| Feb 28, 2026 | DUKE 77 – 51 UVA |
| Feb 18, 2025 | DUKE 80 – 62 UVA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | DUKE 73 – 48 UVA |
| Feb 11, 2023 | UVA 69 – 62 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 16-0 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#35) | 12.6 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#12) | 2.61 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#12) | 3.08 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#9) | 0.608 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.90 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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