Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -500 UVA +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +25 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -11.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -10.6 (+14.4) | 130.5 (-9.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -11.8 (+13.2) | 131.6 (-10.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -11.0 (+14.0) | 131.4 (-10.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -12.0 (+13.0) | 131.5 (-10.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | DUKE 74 – 70 UVA |
| Feb 28, 2026 | DUKE 77 – 51 UVA |
| Feb 18, 2025 | DUKE 80 – 62 UVA |
| Mar 12, 2023 | DUKE 59 – 49 UVA |
| Feb 11, 2023 | UVA 69 – 62 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 59.8 |
| Massey | 17.3 (#12) | 8.8 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#17) | 2.04 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#12) | 2.07 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#22) | 0.586 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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