Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | UVA +700 DUKE -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +18 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -18.2 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -12.6 (-5.4) | 125.7 (+16.3) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -12.1 (-5.9) | 127.2 (+14.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -12.7 (-5.3) | 134.6 (+7.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -12.4 (-5.6) | 133.6 (+8.4) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | DUKE 74 – 70 UVA |
| Feb 28, 2026 | DUKE 77 – 51 UVA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | DUKE 73 – 48 UVA |
| Mar 12, 2023 | DUKE 59 – 49 UVA |
| Feb 11, 2023 | UVA 69 – 62 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 19-1 |
| Home | 10-7 | 17-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 8-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#107) | 25.5 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#111) | 3.82 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#97) | 4.92 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#128) | 0.651 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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