Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | VCU -1000 FOR +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +19 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -14.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -12.2 (+6.8) | 140.2 (+4.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -15.7 (+3.3) | 140.2 (+4.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -13.0 (+6.0) | 140.4 (+4.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -12.6 (+6.4) | 139.1 (+5.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | VCU 63 – 59 FOR |
| Jan 9, 2025 | VCU 73 – 61 FOR |
| Mar 13, 2024 | VCU 69 – 62 FOR |
| Feb 7, 2024 | VCU 75 – 60 FOR |
| Feb 18, 2023 | VCU 80 – 61 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-8 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-7 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#47) | -0.2 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#51) | -0.30 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#47) | -0.25 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#36) | 0.494 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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