Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | TXST -105 APP -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +3 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | APP -1.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -0.4 (+2.6) | 137.2 (-20.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -0.1 (+3.1) | 137.3 (-20.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -0.5 (+3.5) | 136.5 (-19.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -0.6 (+3.6) | 136.8 (-19.8) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2025 | APP 72 – 61 TXST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | TXST 63 – 56 APP |
| Feb 16, 2023 | APP 82 – 75 TXST |
| Feb 3, 2022 | TXST 68 – 66 APP |
| Mar 7, 2021 | APP 76 – 73 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#261) | -1.4 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#196) | 0.02 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#214) | -0.14 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#216) | 0.506 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.