Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | APP -125 TXST +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -1.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -1.0 (+12.0) | 131.9 (+1.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -0.6 (+10.4) | 132.0 (+1.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -1.3 (+12.3) | 131.7 (+1.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -1.6 (+12.6) | 132.4 (+0.6) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TXST 60 – 57 APP |
| Feb 8, 2024 | TXST 63 – 56 APP |
| Feb 16, 2023 | APP 82 – 75 TXST |
| Feb 3, 2022 | TXST 68 – 66 APP |
| Mar 7, 2021 | APP 76 – 73 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#235) | 1.0 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#246) | 0.00 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#246) | -0.16 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#234) | 0.507 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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