Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | TXST +333 APP -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +7 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | APP -8.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -7.2 (+14.2) | 135.9 (-16.9) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -6.0 (+13.0) | 135.8 (-16.8) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -7.9 (+14.9) | 134.2 (-15.2) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -7.0 (+14.0) | 135.5 (-16.5) | 26% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TXST 60 – 57 APP |
| Jan 4, 2025 | APP 72 – 61 TXST |
| Feb 16, 2023 | APP 82 – 75 TXST |
| Feb 3, 2022 | TXST 68 – 66 APP |
| Mar 7, 2021 | APP 76 – 73 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 16-2 |
| Home | 9-4 | 15-0 |
| Away | 5-11 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#254) | 6.7 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#254) | 1.62 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#235) | 1.68 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#214) | 0.574 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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