Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | APP -213 TXST +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +7 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | APP -5.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.1 (+35.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -3.0 (+4.0) | 128.3 (+28.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -3.2 (+3.8) | 128.6 (+28.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -3.6 (+3.4) | 128.8 (+28.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -3.1 (+3.9) | 130.0 (+27.0) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TXST 60 – 57 APP |
| Jan 4, 2025 | APP 72 – 61 TXST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | TXST 63 – 56 APP |
| Feb 3, 2022 | TXST 68 – 66 APP |
| Mar 7, 2021 | APP 76 – 73 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-7 | 4-10 |
| Away | 6-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#188) | -2.1 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#206) | -0.43 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#186) | -0.52 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#199) | 0.479 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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