Texas State
Bobcats
73
–
76
OT
FINAL
Neutral
Sun Belt Conference Championship
App State
Mountaineers
Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | TXST -188 APP +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -2.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.6 (+27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -3.6 (-6.6) | 126.4 (+22.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -2.6 (-5.6) | 124.2 (+24.8) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -3.2 (-6.2) | 128.0 (+21.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -3.7 (-6.7) | 127.0 (+22.0) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TXST 60 – 57 APP |
| Jan 4, 2025 | APP 72 – 61 TXST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | TXST 63 – 56 APP |
| Feb 16, 2023 | APP 82 – 75 TXST |
| Feb 3, 2022 | TXST 68 – 66 APP |
Game Analysis
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