Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | TXST -190 APP +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -3.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.2 (+9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -2.1 (-0.1) | 125.5 (+8.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -1.4 (+0.6) | 130.5 (+3.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -1.5 (+0.5) | 131.5 (+2.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -1.3 (+0.7) | 129.2 (+4.8) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TXST 60 – 57 APP |
| Jan 4, 2025 | APP 72 – 61 TXST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | TXST 63 – 56 APP |
| Feb 16, 2023 | APP 82 – 75 TXST |
| Mar 7, 2021 | APP 76 – 73 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-8 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-1 | 11-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#160) | 0.0 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#129) | 0.81 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#132) | 0.89 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#137) | 0.559 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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