Betting Lines
| Spread | LEH -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LEH -218 BUCK +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEH +10 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | LEH -7.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEH -5.7 (+4.3) | 143.0 (+25.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEH -3.4 (+6.6) | 142.2 (+25.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEH -5.7 (+4.3) | 140.1 (+27.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LEH -6.0 (+4.0) | 141.5 (+26.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | BUCK 72 – 65 LEH |
| Feb 18, 2025 | BUCK 67 – 50 LEH |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LEH 66 – 64 BUCK |
| Feb 13, 2024 | LEH 71 – 63 BUCK |
| Jan 11, 2024 | BUCK 86 – 80 LEH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEH | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#291) | -12.8 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#282) | -1.95 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#315) | -2.58 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#254) | 0.431 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEH | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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