Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | MSST +110 MIZ -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +24 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | MIZ -1.4 (-22.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -0.1 (-24.1) | 154.5 (-2.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -0.4 (-24.4) | 154.4 (-2.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -0.4 (-24.4) | 151.8 (+0.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -0.9 (-24.9) | 153.8 (-1.8) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MIZ 84 – 79 MSST |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MIZ 85 – 73 MSST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MIZ 88 – 61 MSST |
| Feb 11, 2024 | MSST 75 – 51 MIZ |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MIZ 66 – 64 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-8 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 79.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#92) | 10.5 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#87) | 2.26 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#76) | 2.64 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#139) | 0.569 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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