Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ -200 MSST +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +2 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -1.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -2.0 (-0.0) | 139.5 (-9.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -0.6 (+1.4) | 136.7 (-6.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -1.9 (+0.1) | 141.0 (-11.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -1.8 (+0.2) | 140.4 (-10.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIZ 88 – 64 MSST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MIZ 84 – 79 MSST |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MIZ 85 – 73 MSST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MIZ 88 – 61 MSST |
| Feb 11, 2024 | MSST 75 – 51 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 61.0 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#67) | 10.4 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#32) | 1.75 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#45) | 2.20 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#50) | 0.560 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 61.6% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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