Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ +225 MSST -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +24 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -5.6 (-18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -5.4 (-18.6) | 140.8 (-14.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -5.1 (-18.9) | 139.7 (-13.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -4.7 (-19.3) | 140.1 (-14.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -5.3 (-18.7) | 141.7 (-15.7) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIZ 88 – 64 MSST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MIZ 84 – 79 MSST |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MIZ 85 – 73 MSST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MIZ 88 – 61 MSST |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MIZ 66 – 64 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 0-18 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-11 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L19 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#134) | 11.2 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#196) | 1.97 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#177) | 2.66 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#213) | 0.595 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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