Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -285 MSST +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +5 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -5.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -5.4 (-0.4) | 151.6 (+11.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -5.6 (-0.6) | 148.1 (+14.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -5.8 (-0.8) | 148.0 (+15.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -5.9 (-0.9) | 150.0 (+13.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIZ 88 – 64 MSST |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MIZ 85 – 73 MSST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MIZ 88 – 61 MSST |
| Feb 11, 2024 | MSST 75 – 51 MIZ |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MIZ 66 – 64 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#73) | 6.2 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#56) | 1.17 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#56) | 1.78 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#86) | 0.536 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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