Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -275 MIZ +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +27 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -4.5 (-31.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -5.4 (-32.4) | 148.3 (+0.7) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -3.6 (-30.6) | 150.0 (-1.0) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -3.6 (-30.6) | 149.9 (-0.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -3.7 (-30.7) | 150.8 (-1.8) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIZ 88 – 64 MSST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MIZ 84 – 79 MSST |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MIZ 85 – 73 MSST |
| Feb 11, 2024 | MSST 75 – 51 MIZ |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MIZ 66 – 64 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 18-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#24) | 15.3 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#14) | 3.32 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.17 (#14) | 4.04 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#19) | 0.603 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 36.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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