Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ -150 MSST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +12 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -2.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -0.4 (+11.6) | 157.9 (+0.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -0.2 (+12.2) | 157.9 (+0.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -2.0 (+10.0) | 163.0 (-5.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -1.2 (+10.8) | 161.2 (-3.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIZ 88 – 64 MSST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MIZ 84 – 79 MSST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MIZ 88 – 61 MSST |
| Feb 11, 2024 | MSST 75 – 51 MIZ |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MIZ 66 – 64 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 18-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 17.3 (#19) | 15.1 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#13) | 2.93 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.84 (#13) | 3.61 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#42) | 0.596 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 34.1% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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