Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | PENN -270 DART +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -7.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -6.1 (+2.9) | 148.3 (+2.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -4.9 (+4.1) | 148.6 (+2.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -6.0 (+3.0) | 146.3 (+4.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -5.7 (+3.3) | 146.3 (+4.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | PENN 84 – 74 DART |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PENN 88 – 75 DART |
| Jan 11, 2025 | DART 73 – 70 PENN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | PENN 82 – 69 DART |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PENN 80 – 51 DART |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | DART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 5-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 5-8 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#171) | -4.5 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#161) | -0.90 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#157) | -1.22 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#130) | 0.475 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | DART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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