Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | STO +100 MERC -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | MERC -1.8 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MERC -1.9 (-1.1) | 135.2 (+11.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MERC -2.2 (-0.8) | 133.1 (+13.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -1.6 (-1.4) | 132.3 (+14.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -2.3 (-0.7) | 136.3 (+10.7) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MERC 56 – 51 STO |
| Jan 17, 2026 | STO 62 – 57 MERC |
| Feb 15, 2025 | STO 85 – 73 MERC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MERC 76 – 69 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-15 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -11.9 (#327) | -7.1 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.30 (#345) | -1.69 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.02 (#345) | -2.06 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#336) | 0.442 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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