Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | MERC -192 STO +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +5 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | MERC -8.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MERC -4.7 (-9.7) | 128.0 (-9.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MERC -5.0 (-10.0) | 128.1 (-9.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -6.2 (-11.2) | 128.2 (-9.2) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -6.2 (-11.2) | 126.3 (-7.3) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MERC 56 – 51 STO |
| Feb 28, 2026 | MERC 75 – 72 STO |
| Feb 15, 2025 | STO 85 – 73 MERC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MERC 76 – 69 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-14 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#278) | -12.2 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#324) | -3.08 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.67 (#328) | -3.88 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#319) | 0.366 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.7% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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