Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | MERC -205 STO +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +5 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | MERC -7.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.0 (-23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MERC -5.2 (-0.2) | 135.7 (-28.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MERC -5.3 (-0.3) | 134.4 (-27.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -5.4 (-0.4) | 134.9 (-27.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -5.4 (-0.4) | 134.8 (-27.8) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MERC 75 – 72 STO |
| Jan 17, 2026 | STO 62 – 57 MERC |
| Feb 15, 2025 | STO 85 – 73 MERC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MERC 76 – 69 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-14 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#280) | -11.4 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#306) | -2.23 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#303) | -2.85 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#268) | 0.419 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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