Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UPST -950 GWEB +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +10 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -16.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -13.0 (-3.0) | 148.1 (-16.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -10.4 (-0.4) | 148.8 (-16.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -12.6 (-2.6) | 145.4 (-13.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -12.2 (-2.2) | 147.1 (-15.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | GWEB 65 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GWEB 67 – 65 UPST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GWEB 83 – 63 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GWEB 96 – 87 UPST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | GWEB 97 – 68 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 4-29 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 1-15 |
| Home | 10-5 | 3-10 |
| Away | 3-13 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 86.7 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#281) | -20.7 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#304) | -3.73 (#364) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#309) | -4.90 (#364) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#274) | 0.387 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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