Betting Lines
| Spread | GWEB -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | GWEB -290 UPST +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GWEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GWEB +29 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | GWEB -10.9 (+18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GWEB -9.3 (+19.7) | 155.5 (+9.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GWEB -9.1 (+19.9) | 153.5 (+11.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GWEB -9.2 (+19.8) | 155.4 (+9.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GWEB -9.3 (+19.7) | 154.6 (+10.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | GWEB 65 – 64 UPST |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UPST 71 – 61 GWEB |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GWEB 67 – 65 UPST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GWEB 83 – 63 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GWEB 96 – 87 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GWEB | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 2-14 |
| Home | 5-6 | 4-10 |
| Away | 3-13 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 85.5 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#243) | -11.5 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#219) | -2.24 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#219) | -2.71 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#189) | 0.408 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GWEB | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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