Betting Lines
| Spread | GWEB -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | UPST +180 GWEB -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GWEB +9 | 183 | Lost |
| Massey | GWEB -5.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GWEB -5.8 (-3.2) | 153.8 (+29.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GWEB -4.6 (-4.4) | 155.3 (+27.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GWEB -4.5 (-4.5) | 156.9 (+26.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GWEB -5.3 (-3.7) | 156.4 (+26.6) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | GWEB 65 – 64 UPST |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UPST 71 – 61 GWEB |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GWEB 67 – 65 UPST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GWEB 83 – 63 UPST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | GWEB 97 – 68 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 5-11 |
| Home | 4-10 | 5-6 |
| Away | 2-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.5 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#346) | -4.6 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.68 (#350) | -0.74 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.12 (#346) | -0.91 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.386 (#347) | 0.472 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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