Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | GWEB +440 UPST -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GWEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GWEB +2 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -12.9 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -11.4 (+13.4) | 146.7 (-14.7) | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -9.9 (+11.9) | 147.5 (-15.5) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -10.6 (+12.6) | 145.3 (-13.3) | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -11.6 (+13.6) | 145.2 (-13.2) | 14% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | GWEB 65 – 64 UPST |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UPST 71 – 61 GWEB |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GWEB 83 – 63 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GWEB 96 – 87 UPST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | GWEB 97 – 68 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GWEB | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-29 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 5-11 |
| Home | 3-10 | 10-5 |
| Away | 0-16 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 86.7 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -22.8 (#363) | -6.7 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.34 (#364) | -1.42 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.84 (#364) | -2.25 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#345) | 0.453 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GWEB | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.7% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 62.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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