Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | IDST -135 WEB +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WEB +10 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -1.1 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -1.3 (-11.3) | 150.0 (+6.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -0.3 (-10.3) | 150.2 (+5.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WEB -0.2 (-9.8) | 152.8 (+3.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -0.0 (-10.0) | 152.6 (+3.4) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WEB 81 – 79 IDST |
| Feb 9, 2025 | IDST 72 – 67 WEB |
| Jan 12, 2025 | WEB 77 – 69 IDST |
| Feb 25, 2024 | IDST 80 – 62 WEB |
| Jan 28, 2024 | IDST 74 – 64 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#218) | -1.2 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#252) | -0.57 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#242) | -0.54 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#267) | 0.471 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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