Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | IDST +138 WEB -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +18 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | WEB -4.8 (+22.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WEB -5.0 (+23.0) | 136.5 (+5.5) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WEB -3.0 (+21.0) | 133.2 (+8.8) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -3.5 (+21.5) | 138.1 (+3.9) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WEB -4.1 (+22.1) | 137.8 (+4.2) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | WEB 83 – 73 IDST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | WEB 81 – 79 IDST |
| Feb 9, 2025 | IDST 72 – 67 WEB |
| Jan 12, 2025 | WEB 77 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 28, 2024 | IDST 74 – 64 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-13 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#265) | 3.1 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#276) | 0.65 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#270) | 0.92 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#299) | 0.537 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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