Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | IDST -200 WEB +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WEB +8 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -9.2 (-17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -5.0 (-13.0) | 141.9 (+4.1) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -5.2 (-13.2) | 139.0 (+7.0) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -5.9 (-13.9) | 141.3 (+4.7) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -5.5 (-13.5) | 142.6 (+3.4) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | WEB 83 – 73 IDST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | WEB 81 – 79 IDST |
| Feb 9, 2025 | IDST 72 – 67 WEB |
| Feb 25, 2024 | IDST 80 – 62 WEB |
| Jan 28, 2024 | IDST 74 – 64 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 12-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-10 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#160) | -5.2 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#260) | -1.14 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#244) | -1.29 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#253) | 0.458 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 39.4% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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