I'm just like a turtle crawling out of my shell. "Boombastic" - Shaggy
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–13 on winners spread MAE 7.5 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Temple @ Florida Atlantic +5.8 143.2 75% 73–77 ✓
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern -3.9 159.9 40% 84–86 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Radford +4.5 151.7 69% 59–71 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Gardner-Webb -11.9 138.0 15% 77–71 ✓
High Point @ Presbyterian -10.8 146.4 14% 79–73 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Central Connecticut +1.8 136.3 58% 78–80 ✓
New Haven @ Wagner +2.8 131.9 56% 62–65 ✓
Saint Francis @ Stonehill +4.2 135.5 64% 77–103 ✓
Chicago State @ Long Island University +10.6 141.0 86% 56–73 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Le Moyne +5.2 137.8 69% 59–76 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Vermont +9.0 146.5 81% 64–66 ✓
Campbell @ Drexel +1.2 142.5 57% 60–65 ✓
Elon @ Towson +4.8 140.0 72% 56–58 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ UNC Wilmington +12.1 140.8 86% 65–88 ✓
Stony Brook @ Monmouth +1.9 139.6 60% 69–82 ✓
Northeastern @ William & Mary +12.2 157.7 87% 77–84 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Chattanooga +3.9 152.3 67% 85–80 ✗
Stetson @ Jacksonville +3.9 139.7 63% 85–89 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Florida -4.2 156.9 31% 70–76 ✗
Delaware @ Jacksonville State +3.9 135.6 65% 70–80 ✓
Liberty @ Kennesaw State -1.8 152.2 40% 65–74 ✗
Missouri State @ Louisiana Tech +1.2 134.8 46% 70–72 ✓
UTEP @ Middle Tennessee +6.8 136.9 77% 67–77 ✓
New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky +3.7 147.2 68% 70–93 ✓
Michigan State @ Purdue +6.4 145.8 78% 76–74 ✗
Denver @ Oral Roberts -4.9 152.5 28% 80–102 ✗
South Dakota State @ Kansas City -10.1 145.8 15% 73–59 ✓
VMI @ Samford +16.1 151.9 89% 61–80 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Valley +12.4 139.7 86% 72–79 ✓
Alcorn State @ Texas Southern +5.3 147.6 75% 87–92 ✓
Florida A&M @ Southern +6.0 146.5 79% 82–71 ✗
Western Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville +12.9 132.0 87% 47–67 ✓
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State +2.4 148.4 59% 79–71 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Lindenwood +6.0 138.9 70% 71–67 ✗
Morehead State @ Little Rock -0.2 141.4 45% 76–70 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin +8.3 130.1 78% 49–64 ✓
Wichita State @ Memphis +0.2 144.4 47% 88–82 ✗
UC Riverside @ UC Santa Barbara +10.1 147.5 86% 59–70 ✓
North Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +3.4 154.6 67% 62–84 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Davis -1.5 144.5 48% 77–73 ✓
Portland State @ Montana State +1.6 137.3 56% 69–84 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana +6.6 153.0 78% 73–81 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho +9.7 143.6 82% 58–78 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington +1.1 157.1 50% 72–82 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Tech +4.7 137.3 69% 81–85 ✓
Florida International @ Sam Houston +7.3 156.8 81% 67–100 ✓
Jackson State @ Prairie View A&M +4.0 157.0 74% 76–85 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal Poly +5.4 154.3 69% 92–102 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Northridge +0.6 149.7 53% 68–67 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC San Diego +15.3 143.0 90% 72–84 ✓
UT Arlington @ California Baptist +5.3 129.0 67% 56–68 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan -9.7 159.9 16% 69–67 ✓
Yale @ Cornell -4.4 163.4 30% 69–72 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Niagara -6.5 130.9 24% 76–78 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.