Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TXSO -290 ALCN +235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +5 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | TXSO -7.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+26.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -4.7 (+0.3) | 147.8 (+31.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -5.9 (-0.9) | 146.3 (+32.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -5.5 (-0.5) | 147.2 (+31.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -5.3 (-0.3) | 147.6 (+31.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | TXSO 72 – 71 ALCN |
| Mar 4, 2025 | TXSO 75 – 59 ALCN |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXSO 66 – 57 ALCN |
| Mar 5, 2024 | ALCN 82 – 79 TXSO |
| Jan 20, 2024 | TXSO 72 – 61 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 5-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#326) | -16.3 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#313) | -1.78 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#311) | -2.43 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#291) | 0.410 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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